* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/25/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 97 98 96 92 85 78 73 67 63 55 49 V (KT) LAND 90 95 97 98 96 92 85 78 73 67 63 55 49 V (KT) LGE mod 90 95 97 96 94 88 80 72 66 61 56 51 47 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 7 8 16 19 15 17 21 20 17 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 7 5 4 0 6 0 7 8 9 6 3 SHEAR DIR 142 153 151 121 126 144 119 116 110 118 110 78 85 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 146 145 143 140 136 136 135 136 136 135 134 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 71 73 70 71 70 65 68 68 76 75 79 75 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 11 10 9 10 9 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -26 -14 -9 -5 10 17 20 36 52 70 58 61 200 MB DIV 61 35 31 45 50 38 41 55 45 53 55 42 59 LAND (KM) 388 395 402 419 436 464 472 474 465 441 398 373 370 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.4 100.9 101.4 101.9 102.4 103.2 103.5 103.6 103.7 103.6 103.2 103.1 103.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 14 22 29 18 23 20 12 14 16 14 20 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -12. -15. -19. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 8. 6. 2. -5. -12. -17. -23. -27. -35. -41. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/25/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/25/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY