* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/25/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 63 72 76 79 78 80 77 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 37 30 36 39 38 40 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 39 43 52 37 30 39 46 53 61 69 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 8 10 11 6 6 4 10 12 13 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -1 0 -3 1 -3 2 -3 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 338 14 28 38 37 65 1 271 317 247 343 206 236 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 160 164 161 161 157 152 148 146 148 147 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 150 153 156 153 152 145 139 133 131 132 131 127 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -50.9 -51.8 -50.9 -51.8 -50.6 -51.4 -51.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 12 12 10 9 11 9 12 9 13 10 15 10 700-500 MB RH 76 73 78 76 74 76 74 71 68 67 62 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 10 8 10 7 8 6 6 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 81 82 93 89 75 71 45 58 46 61 58 55 33 200 MB DIV 42 39 57 38 29 41 23 46 31 25 -2 12 15 LAND (KM) 181 128 118 141 179 22 -116 -20 87 192 278 295 178 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.6 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 82.5 83.5 84.4 85.3 86.2 87.8 89.3 90.5 91.4 92.3 93.3 94.3 95.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 89 94 92 90 47 0 29 9 34 35 47 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 33. 42. 46. 49. 48. 50. 47. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/25/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 75.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/25/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 06/25/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)