* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 06/25/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 47 51 55 55 55 53 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 47 51 55 55 55 53 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 31 35 40 46 50 52 SHEAR (KT) 29 21 29 19 7 10 8 12 7 8 5 12 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 2 4 3 1 -3 -1 -4 -4 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 276 268 248 265 226 201 148 153 143 164 291 324 357 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.7 26.8 25.8 24.9 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 147 146 144 142 142 139 132 121 111 104 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 138 136 133 129 127 122 114 104 95 90 84 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 66 68 66 65 65 66 61 56 55 51 50 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 8 9 9 9 7 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -36 -51 -55 -49 -43 -54 -56 -66 -92 -107 -108 -87 200 MB DIV 62 66 66 51 25 14 13 13 18 -27 -26 -3 6 LAND (KM) 836 743 661 610 579 605 671 796 920 1067 1212 1200 1185 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.6 19.3 20.1 20.9 22.5 23.9 25.4 26.7 28.2 29.7 31.1 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.8 58.7 59.5 60.2 60.9 62.0 63.1 63.9 64.7 65.0 64.9 64.1 63.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 8 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 69 64 67 60 48 31 42 34 22 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 26. 30. 30. 30. 28. 24. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 06/25/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 06/25/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 06/25/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)