* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/25/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 96 94 93 88 81 77 75 70 66 60 51 V (KT) LAND 95 96 96 94 93 88 81 77 75 70 66 60 51 V (KT) LGE mod 95 98 99 98 95 88 80 73 67 60 55 50 46 SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 11 14 9 17 20 17 19 18 25 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 3 4 0 6 13 10 7 5 5 SHEAR DIR 152 162 126 121 147 137 115 121 125 115 99 96 121 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 145 143 141 139 138 137 136 139 140 140 141 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.8 -51.0 -51.8 -50.7 -51.7 -51.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 74 70 70 73 68 65 67 71 75 76 77 75 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 12 11 12 14 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -11 -5 6 16 13 16 28 35 43 38 45 31 200 MB DIV 29 14 41 66 62 25 28 37 55 58 39 60 74 LAND (KM) 380 390 399 429 458 500 484 475 472 439 365 323 294 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.9 101.4 101.8 102.4 102.9 103.5 103.4 103.4 103.5 103.1 102.4 101.9 101.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 5 4 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 23 21 26 12 15 15 12 22 12 14 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -23. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -3. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -7. -14. -18. -20. -25. -29. -35. -44. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/25/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/25/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED