* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 50 58 65 71 74 76 76 74 71 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 50 43 32 38 41 42 42 40 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 45 42 32 38 45 52 58 64 67 SHEAR (KT) 16 9 6 5 4 4 4 13 8 17 9 19 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 1 -4 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 359 7 351 32 36 312 303 301 267 274 283 263 216 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 159 164 160 154 145 139 136 138 144 146 142 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 153 157 151 144 134 127 121 122 128 128 121 123 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 9 8 11 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 73 77 77 76 77 74 73 65 66 57 56 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 88 84 72 73 60 58 47 60 48 56 50 26 200 MB DIV 47 50 36 44 41 34 26 26 30 22 8 19 10 LAND (KM) 184 180 222 194 99 -58 -51 69 186 318 385 293 270 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.5 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.4 24.6 24.8 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 82.9 83.9 84.9 85.8 86.6 88.0 89.6 90.5 91.1 92.0 93.6 94.5 95.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 10 9 8 9 8 6 6 7 7 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 90 96 100 92 86 67 18 5 25 29 33 36 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 28. 35. 41. 44. 46. 46. 44. 41. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/25/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 06/25/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)