* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 105 94 85 74 60 47 40 32 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 105 94 85 74 60 47 40 32 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 103 93 84 76 62 51 43 38 35 32 30 28 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 6 7 2 1 5 9 11 7 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 4 5 5 16 12 10 4 2 4 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 101 129 159 176 229 252 330 35 100 116 89 95 86 SST (C) 27.0 26.3 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 126 119 114 111 108 107 106 105 104 104 103 101 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 55 53 46 43 46 43 40 38 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 29 27 27 23 23 20 20 19 17 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 10 10 0 5 0 -1 7 14 27 45 33 200 MB DIV -12 -41 -124 -79 -1 -22 -28 5 8 13 -1 -10 5 LAND (KM) 1334 1368 1390 1408 1431 1490 1547 1598 1625 1668 1721 1756 1776 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.4 120.3 121.1 121.8 123.1 124.0 124.7 125.1 125.6 126.2 126.7 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 2 2 2 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 20 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -18. -31. -43. -53. -61. -68. -73. -78. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -11. -7. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -5. -6. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -21. -30. -41. -55. -68. -75. -83. -93.-102.-107.-111. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -51.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/25/10 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 24 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY