* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 109 106 103 94 86 78 71 65 59 51 44 V (KT) LAND 105 108 109 106 103 94 86 78 71 65 59 51 44 V (KT) LGE mod 105 108 107 103 98 89 80 74 68 63 58 53 47 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 13 20 20 16 17 20 20 23 25 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 3 9 7 6 10 6 SHEAR DIR 148 108 111 151 161 111 117 116 106 97 87 93 87 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 141 140 139 141 138 137 139 138 137 139 141 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 65 65 65 65 74 74 77 76 79 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 11 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -8 3 10 9 17 26 41 39 49 47 45 23 200 MB DIV 24 38 68 76 83 25 10 60 61 69 50 64 41 LAND (KM) 397 413 429 466 503 534 535 514 496 473 450 409 342 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.0 102.7 103.1 103.4 103.6 104.3 104.3 103.6 103.2 103.3 102.9 102.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 5 4 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 18 26 27 29 26 24 23 25 18 22 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -23. -28. -32. -36. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 1. -2. -11. -19. -27. -34. -40. -46. -54. -61. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/25/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY