* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012010 06/26/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 49 56 64 68 73 75 77 77 75 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 49 34 36 40 45 47 48 48 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 41 32 33 40 47 54 62 70 76 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 7 6 7 11 10 10 9 6 2 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 0 -3 -3 -3 2 -2 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 336 351 39 41 274 333 276 300 263 346 168 111 194 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 162 160 155 145 137 139 140 142 144 143 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 157 154 151 145 136 125 122 122 124 125 122 121 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.3 -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 -51.2 -50.3 -51.0 -50.3 -50.7 -50.4 -50.9 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 11 10 9 12 10 13 10 13 10 14 700-500 MB RH 81 80 81 79 79 76 70 65 65 61 63 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 11 13 9 10 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 87 79 80 79 53 68 72 87 66 71 42 30 200 MB DIV 79 55 50 62 62 33 70 37 42 4 11 0 1 LAND (KM) 94 134 197 110 17 -145 42 186 244 319 427 408 362 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.7 21.4 22.4 22.7 23.2 24.0 24.5 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 83.9 84.9 85.8 86.6 87.4 88.8 90.3 91.3 91.8 92.3 92.9 93.4 93.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 10 9 5 3 4 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 96 93 90 88 78 0 3 24 35 30 30 33 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 26. 34. 38. 43. 45. 47. 47. 45. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ONE 06/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 89.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ONE 06/26/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ONE 06/26/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)