* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/26/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 94 83 72 62 45 34 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 94 83 72 62 45 34 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 94 84 75 68 55 45 37 32 29 26 24 21 SHEAR (KT) 11 7 3 11 9 3 3 9 11 9 14 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 7 2 7 19 11 8 2 5 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 117 156 154 209 192 238 134 98 111 78 81 74 96 SST (C) 26.2 25.5 25.0 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 118 112 110 108 108 106 104 103 102 101 100 100 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -50.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 58 57 59 57 53 48 43 45 45 43 42 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 30 26 25 25 21 20 20 17 16 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 15 5 8 -2 -3 7 -6 6 14 17 31 38 15 200 MB DIV -51 -129 -77 -26 1 -6 -19 -9 -9 -1 -19 -4 3 LAND (KM) 1344 1363 1383 1412 1444 1515 1566 1602 1627 1647 1682 1696 1710 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.2 121.0 121.7 122.4 123.6 124.4 124.9 125.2 125.5 126.0 126.2 126.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -17. -28. -38. -47. -55. -61. -66. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -11. -8. -6. -3. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -11. -14. -14. -18. -20. -23. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -22. -33. -42. -60. -71. -78. -88. -96.-106.-111.-116. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -56.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/26/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY