* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/26/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 96 93 91 83 79 70 64 58 52 44 38 V (KT) LAND 100 98 96 93 91 83 79 70 64 58 52 44 38 V (KT) LGE mod 100 98 95 92 88 81 74 68 61 55 49 44 39 SHEAR (KT) 8 17 18 18 14 18 22 25 29 26 28 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 -1 0 0 7 6 8 6 9 5 8 SHEAR DIR 119 130 142 148 130 121 101 109 106 98 98 105 95 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 140 138 138 135 137 138 136 136 139 141 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -50.5 -51.4 -50.6 -51.4 -50.6 -51.6 -50.8 -52.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 8 7 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 69 70 65 66 62 67 69 75 73 76 74 75 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 14 14 14 12 14 13 12 11 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -8 7 13 22 27 33 41 41 54 48 54 31 25 200 MB DIV 42 56 62 69 27 14 66 51 62 63 56 43 65 LAND (KM) 394 423 453 482 509 519 507 473 417 375 380 350 288 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.5 103.0 103.4 103.7 104.1 104.4 104.0 103.2 102.8 102.9 102.5 101.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 3 3 1 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 13 26 24 25 25 23 22 20 21 21 22 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -20. -25. -29. -33. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -17. -21. -30. -36. -42. -48. -56. -62. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/26/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED