* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/26/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 54 62 69 77 82 86 87 86 85 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 44 32 36 44 48 52 53 53 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 47 43 32 35 43 52 61 71 79 86 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 6 8 5 10 4 10 4 4 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 2 -3 -1 -1 0 2 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 337 24 26 334 11 318 334 283 317 3 327 108 12 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 164 162 160 156 147 138 138 141 145 146 141 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 160 155 151 146 136 124 121 124 128 127 118 123 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -50.6 -50.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 11 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 80 82 81 80 79 78 73 73 71 69 68 66 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 93 92 86 87 81 78 73 88 94 105 88 94 74 200 MB DIV 68 69 74 77 53 47 59 59 46 49 36 37 40 LAND (KM) 84 133 145 49 -24 -111 50 152 226 332 390 335 367 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.7 21.0 21.8 22.4 23.1 24.1 24.3 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 84.5 85.6 86.6 87.4 88.1 89.5 90.8 91.5 91.9 92.6 93.8 94.3 94.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 9 9 9 7 4 4 6 5 0 2 HEAT CONTENT 95 91 89 87 64 18 5 6 34 33 46 43 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 27. 34. 42. 47. 51. 52. 52. 50. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/26/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/26/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/26/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)