* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/26/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 80 69 58 51 37 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 80 69 58 51 37 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 79 70 63 56 45 37 32 28 26 24 23 21 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 4 2 8 9 8 12 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 8 15 14 15 6 3 5 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 182 189 202 178 197 186 89 60 99 66 69 97 110 SST (C) 25.4 25.0 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 117 112 110 108 108 107 104 102 102 103 102 101 100 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 55 58 55 49 44 41 40 38 38 36 36 41 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 23 21 22 20 19 16 16 14 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 10 14 3 -2 4 9 -2 10 25 25 42 35 22 200 MB DIV -112 -79 -53 -2 -2 -16 3 -20 40 4 -1 0 7 LAND (KM) 1363 1390 1422 1455 1490 1549 1593 1636 1653 1683 1711 1746 1790 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.1 121.9 122.6 123.2 124.1 124.8 125.3 125.5 125.9 126.3 126.8 127.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 1 1 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -13. -21. -29. -37. -43. -48. -52. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -12. -9. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -5. -8. -10. -15. -15. -17. -16. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -21. -32. -39. -53. -63. -73. -78. -85. -89. -96. -99. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/26/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -49.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/26/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY