* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/26/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 91 88 85 80 73 63 57 50 45 39 34 V (KT) LAND 100 96 91 88 85 80 73 63 57 50 45 39 34 V (KT) LGE mod 100 96 92 88 84 78 72 66 60 54 49 44 39 SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 16 16 14 21 25 27 28 27 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 -1 5 7 6 7 7 7 5 6 SHEAR DIR 124 150 141 132 117 116 111 105 101 99 94 91 92 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 141 141 138 138 138 140 138 137 138 139 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 67 66 66 70 66 73 72 75 71 75 72 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 10 11 12 12 12 9 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 12 22 28 28 35 41 47 45 51 35 41 200 MB DIV 40 41 60 61 37 50 48 65 78 61 60 52 60 LAND (KM) 446 474 503 528 554 543 492 435 379 350 369 355 316 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.8 103.2 103.5 103.8 104.2 103.9 103.2 102.5 102.3 102.7 102.6 102.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 3 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 22 28 29 29 27 23 19 16 18 21 22 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -15. -20. -27. -37. -43. -50. -55. -61. -66. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/26/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/26/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED