* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/26/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 58 62 70 76 81 85 86 85 83 79 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 46 38 31 38 44 48 49 47 45 41 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 51 47 39 31 39 48 58 69 78 85 88 SHEAR (KT) 6 9 11 12 7 8 8 7 5 7 6 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 -1 -3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 7 356 3 1 349 282 346 240 359 155 164 213 250 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 157 151 144 140 144 148 146 144 144 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 153 152 148 141 132 126 128 131 127 123 124 124 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.6 -50.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.1 -51.0 -50.1 -50.8 -50.5 -51.0 -50.3 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 8 8 11 9 13 9 13 10 14 10 700-500 MB RH 82 80 80 79 78 77 71 70 64 67 66 67 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 12 10 11 9 9 10 8 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 98 88 93 83 69 81 83 89 72 68 48 47 35 200 MB DIV 67 78 75 43 33 57 49 24 19 2 15 20 2 LAND (KM) 140 149 53 -22 -114 -22 85 237 372 385 321 238 148 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.0 20.0 21.2 22.2 23.0 23.8 24.4 24.6 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 86.5 87.3 88.2 89.0 90.3 91.1 92.2 93.2 94.0 94.4 95.2 96.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 4 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 92 90 87 64 0 15 6 34 48 56 40 38 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 18. 22. 30. 36. 41. 45. 46. 45. 43. 39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/26/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/26/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/26/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)