* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/26/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 75 66 58 49 34 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 75 66 58 49 34 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 75 67 60 54 44 37 33 30 28 26 24 21 SHEAR (KT) 12 8 9 9 4 6 7 11 14 12 11 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 12 14 8 6 0 -1 0 2 5 0 SHEAR DIR 191 188 160 160 181 153 66 78 93 83 73 85 104 SST (C) 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 108 108 108 106 105 104 103 103 102 101 99 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 58 53 46 47 42 44 41 41 33 36 41 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 21 22 22 20 17 17 15 14 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 8 1 -1 3 9 -6 -11 0 7 12 20 -5 -17 200 MB DIV -86 -60 -4 -10 -7 -4 2 -4 22 -15 8 9 -8 LAND (KM) 1382 1411 1444 1478 1514 1573 1598 1617 1634 1662 1704 1732 1768 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.8 122.4 123.0 123.5 124.4 124.7 125.0 125.2 125.6 126.2 126.6 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -27. -33. -39. -44. -48. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -27. -36. -51. -60. -69. -75. -82. -89. -95. -97. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/26/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/26/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY