* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/26/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 87 84 81 77 67 59 52 48 41 34 28 V (KT) LAND 95 91 87 84 81 77 67 59 52 48 41 34 28 V (KT) LGE mod 95 91 88 84 81 75 69 63 57 53 49 46 41 SHEAR (KT) 12 13 18 18 14 19 26 29 25 29 24 28 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 0 2 6 9 6 0 3 5 9 3 SHEAR DIR 143 142 126 127 132 99 99 94 91 81 95 86 96 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 141 140 138 137 138 137 137 138 138 137 136 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 -50.4 -51.6 -50.5 -51.6 -50.8 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 69 65 65 66 67 70 75 76 75 74 77 73 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 14 12 11 8 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 27 34 33 46 41 57 42 42 26 22 11 200 MB DIV 40 53 62 39 31 68 42 89 46 54 41 44 31 LAND (KM) 469 493 519 526 527 494 461 420 390 355 325 295 285 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.1 103.5 103.8 104.0 104.0 103.5 103.1 102.9 102.6 102.4 102.2 102.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 1 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 19 28 28 27 26 24 14 22 21 22 15 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 0. -1. -4. -4. -7. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. -28. -36. -43. -47. -54. -61. -67. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/26/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/26/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY