* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/26/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 70 75 83 89 93 95 96 94 89 83 V (KT) LAND 50 57 43 36 32 43 50 54 56 57 55 40 31 V (KT) LGE mod 50 58 45 37 33 45 56 67 79 89 95 63 38 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 5 3 7 4 8 7 4 1 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -5 -1 -3 1 -3 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 4 345 349 328 265 328 330 330 53 335 244 297 314 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 160 154 151 147 148 147 145 145 141 139 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 155 152 146 143 136 131 127 126 128 124 121 118 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -49.8 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 8 10 11 12 11 12 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 80 78 70 70 71 69 74 72 73 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 97 90 85 72 80 78 90 92 103 108 65 56 39 200 MB DIV 88 94 68 49 59 63 57 46 58 60 13 39 29 LAND (KM) 95 15 -63 -110 -1 227 369 340 271 194 51 -71 -183 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.6 21.2 22.5 22.9 22.8 23.0 23.8 24.0 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 87.3 88.1 88.8 89.7 90.6 92.5 93.5 94.2 94.9 95.9 97.3 98.5 99.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 10 6 3 4 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 83 12 0 19 1 38 52 68 65 51 14 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 25. 33. 39. 43. 45. 46. 44. 39. 33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 65% is 8.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 44% is 9.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/26/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/26/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)