* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/26/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 62 55 49 43 36 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 62 55 49 43 36 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 62 55 50 46 39 34 32 29 28 25 23 20 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 4 5 6 13 19 20 20 23 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 12 12 8 6 -3 -4 -2 1 3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 201 142 162 179 114 120 72 99 90 87 81 97 99 SST (C) 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 110 110 109 108 107 108 106 106 107 106 105 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 51 45 46 43 42 39 40 34 32 33 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 21 20 19 19 16 15 13 12 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 5 0 8 14 9 -3 -3 21 28 25 9 12 2 200 MB DIV -61 -8 -16 -13 -10 11 -14 11 5 6 12 9 -5 LAND (KM) 1430 1467 1505 1537 1570 1611 1636 1670 1704 1721 1738 1774 1831 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 122.5 123.1 123.6 124.1 124.6 124.9 125.3 125.7 125.9 126.1 126.6 127.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 2 1 2 1 1 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -21. -26. -29. -31. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -12. -13. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -21. -27. -34. -44. -51. -59. -66. -76. -81. -84. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/26/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY