* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/26/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 67 63 61 55 50 45 40 36 33 30 26 V (KT) LAND 80 73 67 63 61 55 50 45 40 36 33 30 26 V (KT) LGE mod 80 73 68 64 61 57 52 48 44 40 37 34 30 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 17 13 22 24 26 29 30 33 35 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 5 6 9 8 9 5 9 7 9 15 SHEAR DIR 151 123 121 122 112 98 99 83 87 81 84 79 75 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 139 138 138 137 138 138 139 140 138 139 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 66 68 68 65 73 72 76 72 77 80 82 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 23 24 22 34 41 64 83 83 91 94 87 64 200 MB DIV 54 50 43 42 37 67 68 80 61 85 74 52 36 LAND (KM) 459 476 493 499 505 456 380 355 355 321 257 243 257 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.5 14.4 14.6 15.1 15.2 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.0 103.2 103.4 103.6 103.4 102.9 102.6 102.4 102.1 101.8 101.7 101.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 2 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 23 16 12 14 12 10 11 10 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -10. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -17. -19. -25. -30. -35. -40. -44. -47. -50. -54. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/26/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY