* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/27/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 66 72 79 86 91 97 99 96 93 89 V (KT) LAND 50 39 33 36 41 48 55 61 66 68 49 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 50 40 34 31 39 49 60 72 84 92 67 39 30 SHEAR (KT) 3 7 8 4 5 9 7 10 3 5 9 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -4 0 -2 -1 1 1 4 7 SHEAR DIR 25 331 353 335 325 20 54 41 74 91 165 138 143 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 157 155 149 148 146 145 142 138 137 134 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 149 146 137 134 130 129 127 122 122 120 117 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.9 -50.9 -50.2 -49.7 -50.5 -49.5 -50.0 -49.5 -49.8 -49.2 -49.8 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 10 11 8 12 9 13 9 14 9 12 700-500 MB RH 81 82 82 78 78 73 69 64 66 67 67 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 14 14 13 14 15 15 16 15 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 87 75 72 88 97 101 111 116 112 101 96 104 85 200 MB DIV 104 89 78 75 73 47 26 26 23 19 33 39 23 LAND (KM) 10 -84 -114 -2 103 202 278 248 138 48 -55 -218 -382 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.1 89.0 89.9 90.8 91.6 92.8 93.7 94.7 95.9 97.2 98.4 100.0 101.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 32 0 13 32 32 44 48 18 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 22. 29. 36. 41. 47. 49. 46. 43. 39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 4.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/27/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/27/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)