* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 06/27/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 37 40 44 47 48 47 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 37 40 44 47 48 47 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 39 43 45 SHEAR (KT) 21 24 19 19 20 12 15 5 13 13 15 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 2 5 -2 0 -2 -3 -6 -5 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 210 210 207 195 193 184 196 178 203 176 144 51 312 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.3 26.0 24.8 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 150 146 143 143 143 138 127 113 104 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 142 142 139 135 130 129 127 121 111 98 92 83 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 5 700-500 MB RH 63 62 56 59 53 58 51 52 48 49 51 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -33 -38 -23 -28 -26 -51 -62 -75 -85 -80 -44 -14 200 MB DIV 17 -5 -3 20 -2 5 -5 -27 -4 -1 -18 33 63 LAND (KM) 571 529 497 476 474 519 607 721 869 975 1084 963 929 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.8 23.4 24.8 26.3 27.8 29.5 31.3 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 60.7 61.0 61.4 61.7 62.4 63.4 64.3 65.3 66.2 66.7 66.8 65.9 STM SPEED (KT) 0 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 83 80 76 63 49 34 38 42 30 13 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 19. 22. 23. 22. 21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 06/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 06/27/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 06/27/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)