* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/27/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 46 37 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 46 37 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 45 38 33 30 25 23 22 21 19 18 15 DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 6 3 3 6 8 16 16 24 25 26 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 10 12 7 4 0 -6 -2 0 -1 7 3 3 SHEAR DIR 170 211 221 131 114 54 77 80 84 83 94 93 114 SST (C) 24.8 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.9 24.7 24.4 24.1 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 109 110 110 109 109 108 108 107 104 101 98 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 49 46 47 44 42 38 38 37 34 33 37 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 19 17 16 15 14 14 12 11 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -5 2 7 0 -11 -19 0 27 20 25 0 1 -13 200 MB DIV -17 -16 -10 -4 8 -15 -10 29 -5 0 6 -28 -22 LAND (KM) 1459 1497 1537 1565 1594 1618 1677 1710 1736 1774 1807 1865 1903 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 122.4 123.0 123.5 123.9 124.3 124.6 125.3 125.7 126.0 126.6 127.3 128.2 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -15. -14. -13. -11. -9. -9. -9. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -16. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -25. -30. -38. -42. -45. -50. -56. -65. -68. -71. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/27/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY