* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/27/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 52 46 42 40 37 34 29 28 26 23 21 20 V (KT) LAND 60 52 46 42 40 37 34 29 28 26 23 21 20 V (KT) LGE mod 60 50 44 40 37 34 32 29 28 26 25 24 22 SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 18 22 25 26 28 27 25 29 34 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 4 3 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 3 6 SHEAR DIR 108 111 112 113 101 103 89 91 86 97 85 93 86 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 138 138 137 137 138 139 140 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.2 -51.3 -50.3 -51.5 -50.6 -51.5 -50.5 -51.4 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 7 7 8 6 7 7 9 7 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 67 71 73 72 72 68 74 70 70 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 12 11 12 11 10 7 6 5 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 20 28 32 37 49 53 63 60 76 52 44 24 14 200 MB DIV 46 38 53 48 59 63 77 53 36 38 64 38 59 LAND (KM) 468 480 494 490 485 435 375 350 326 302 253 238 238 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.2 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.9 103.2 103.4 103.5 103.6 103.2 102.8 102.5 102.2 101.9 101.7 101.6 101.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 15 11 11 19 12 10 10 9 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -16. -17. -16. -15. -12. -10. -9. -9. -7. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -18. -20. -23. -26. -31. -32. -34. -37. -39. -40. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/27/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED