* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/27/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 34 36 40 48 57 67 76 84 87 89 88 V (KT) LAND 35 31 30 35 39 47 56 66 75 66 40 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 33 35 41 49 59 68 63 39 30 28 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 2 3 5 13 5 1 3 4 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 -3 2 -5 0 2 0 6 4 4 SHEAR DIR 13 13 342 283 320 33 18 63 333 152 182 171 170 SST (C) 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 157 155 151 149 148 147 145 141 138 135 132 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 149 145 139 135 133 131 130 127 124 120 116 113 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -49.9 -49.8 -49.8 -49.5 -49.2 -49.2 -49.1 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 10 11 9 11 10 12 11 12 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 84 82 80 79 77 72 72 67 71 70 68 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 74 67 86 100 100 121 135 117 124 118 123 93 79 200 MB DIV 80 84 82 79 87 39 30 25 20 32 42 14 -2 LAND (KM) -84 -110 -4 76 157 241 296 197 84 -35 -204 -326 -378 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.2 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.9 90.8 91.5 92.1 93.1 94.1 95.3 96.7 98.2 99.8 101.0 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 32 0 8 33 33 39 52 35 25 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -7. -4. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. 5. 13. 22. 32. 41. 49. 52. 54. 53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/27/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/27/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/27/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)