* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/27/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 42 36 32 28 23 19 16 16 16 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 42 36 32 28 23 19 16 16 16 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 41 35 32 29 26 24 22 20 19 18 16 15 SHEAR (KT) 17 19 22 25 25 24 30 27 27 28 30 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 1 4 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 SHEAR DIR 108 100 104 109 103 95 84 83 92 97 97 93 88 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 139 140 140 142 143 144 144 144 141 137 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -50.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 65 68 66 70 74 73 73 70 75 76 76 72 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 30 39 39 51 56 48 39 31 36 23 37 200 MB DIV 30 31 41 64 53 73 58 41 33 50 34 27 35 LAND (KM) 483 486 488 466 443 385 299 261 218 183 160 148 155 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.3 103.3 103.2 103.0 102.4 101.6 101.2 100.9 100.8 101.2 101.8 102.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 2 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 18 22 25 14 10 9 9 14 8 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -15. -15. -14. -12. -10. -10. -10. -7. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -18. -22. -27. -31. -33. -34. -34. -35. -37. -38. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/27/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/27/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED