* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/27/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 28 29 32 41 51 62 70 78 83 84 84 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 33 36 45 55 66 75 82 65 40 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 30 31 35 42 50 59 69 58 37 30 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 7 10 7 9 5 3 9 2 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -2 0 2 9 6 SHEAR DIR 357 340 252 331 3 19 56 144 159 179 161 179 98 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 151 149 147 148 148 146 143 140 138 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 139 136 132 132 131 128 126 122 121 120 117 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.3 -49.8 -50.2 -50.5 -49.4 -50.0 -49.2 -49.9 -48.9 -49.2 -48.5 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 11 9 8 12 9 13 8 13 8 12 7 700-500 MB RH 83 80 80 78 73 69 66 69 73 73 71 66 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 15 15 14 15 15 17 17 18 21 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 71 86 103 104 110 131 123 123 125 102 109 106 88 200 MB DIV 79 72 77 81 65 56 47 23 45 45 30 16 -14 LAND (KM) -91 0 88 160 226 303 301 224 163 61 -30 -153 -285 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.8 91.5 92.1 92.6 93.4 94.3 95.2 96.2 97.2 98.1 99.3 100.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 0 9 33 34 34 55 60 44 20 24 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -8. -4. -2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. -1. 2. 11. 21. 32. 40. 48. 53. 54. 54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/27/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/27/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/27/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)