* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/27/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 34 30 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 34 30 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 37 34 32 28 26 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 2 2 5 2 8 12 12 16 18 24 21 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 3 4 1 -2 0 5 2 8 5 9 8 SHEAR DIR 225 132 105 50 13 78 75 73 73 89 89 104 118 SST (C) 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.4 24.1 24.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 110 110 110 109 108 108 107 104 102 103 103 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 46 43 40 38 39 35 37 29 27 27 27 27 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 11 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 7 0 -12 -19 -20 -7 17 22 37 20 17 -4 -11 200 MB DIV -20 1 4 -4 -22 -25 0 -12 4 0 -16 -6 -19 LAND (KM) 1537 1561 1585 1610 1635 1685 1719 1769 1825 1882 1949 2036 2118 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 123.9 124.2 124.5 124.8 125.4 125.8 126.4 127.2 128.1 129.2 130.4 131.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -15. -21. -25. -32. -37. -43. -49. -54. -58. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/27/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/27/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY