* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/27/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 32 28 24 18 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 32 28 24 18 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 36 34 32 28 26 23 21 20 18 17 16 SHEAR (KT) 18 22 28 26 25 31 30 26 27 32 33 37 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 2 5 7 3 7 5 5 2 5 9 SHEAR DIR 99 105 102 103 98 83 89 86 89 89 97 85 91 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 138 140 140 141 143 145 145 145 146 143 140 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.2 -50.8 -51.3 -50.3 -51.3 -50.4 -51.2 -50.4 -51.3 -50.7 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 7 7 8 8 10 8 10 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 67 66 72 76 74 72 72 69 76 73 76 73 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 30 40 38 59 52 54 38 21 31 31 36 200 MB DIV 28 27 47 59 58 67 49 48 48 40 2 33 1 LAND (KM) 458 443 429 396 365 323 251 209 186 166 138 134 140 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.0 102.9 102.7 102.4 101.9 101.2 100.7 100.4 100.4 100.7 101.3 102.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 23 15 12 10 9 11 19 23 18 11 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -27. -29. -29. -31. -33. -35. -36. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/27/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/27/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED