* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 33 36 40 48 59 69 78 83 85 85 84 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 43 51 62 72 81 86 61 38 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 33 35 38 45 53 62 72 81 60 37 30 SHEAR (KT) 4 3 9 12 8 10 6 3 5 2 5 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -4 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 8 1 5 4 SHEAR DIR 352 321 338 14 40 18 60 107 85 37 91 55 82 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 150 148 148 148 148 146 143 140 137 136 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 140 136 133 133 132 131 129 125 123 120 120 118 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.8 -50.0 -50.3 -49.8 -49.6 -49.3 -49.5 -49.0 -48.9 -48.6 -48.6 -48.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 10 10 12 10 11 10 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 81 78 79 76 74 70 68 71 71 72 71 67 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 16 17 18 20 21 23 23 25 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 86 104 111 119 126 130 125 130 120 127 108 127 87 200 MB DIV 63 68 70 70 61 57 34 29 38 17 20 -8 -1 LAND (KM) -29 39 108 166 212 305 301 219 163 61 -51 -173 -316 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.3 23.5 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.3 91.9 92.3 92.7 93.5 94.3 95.3 96.2 97.2 98.3 99.5 100.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 3 19 33 33 33 51 60 44 20 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 6. 10. 18. 29. 39. 48. 53. 56. 55. 54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/27/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/27/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)