* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 27 24 23 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 7 5 8 11 11 16 23 25 27 29 35 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 -1 -2 0 0 0 2 8 4 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 120 110 86 46 63 72 70 88 93 93 92 105 112 SST (C) 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 110 110 110 110 109 110 111 112 111 109 106 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 43 41 38 39 39 42 34 37 39 39 37 35 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 12 10 10 9 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -15 -28 -31 -28 -7 -2 1 -12 -31 -28 -17 -9 200 MB DIV 5 8 -6 -24 -25 8 -3 8 14 -6 -22 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1576 1592 1607 1611 1615 1624 1632 1632 1647 1673 1707 1768 1804 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 123.9 124.1 124.2 124.3 124.3 124.4 124.5 124.5 124.6 125.0 125.5 126.3 126.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -21. -26. -31. -37. -44. -50. -53. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/27/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY