* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 31 29 24 23 21 22 23 20 19 20 V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 31 29 24 23 21 22 25 26 26 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 32 30 27 25 24 23 25 26 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 25 29 26 27 28 26 23 28 33 33 30 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 6 6 7 3 8 8 3 4 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 88 84 93 96 93 86 77 91 84 90 91 78 N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 144 146 148 151 154 154 153 151 149 145 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.4 -50.9 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 11 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 72 74 73 74 75 73 76 75 78 74 74 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 25 22 16 24 41 40 36 36 52 41 63 N/A 200 MB DIV 34 49 59 74 51 36 23 15 1 1 -8 16 N/A LAND (KM) 436 417 398 346 294 207 102 45 -38 -69 -127 -164 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.2 16.5 17.1 18.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.2 102.0 101.4 100.8 99.5 98.2 97.5 97.1 97.2 97.6 97.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 4 6 6 7 5 4 3 2 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 25 27 23 12 38 35 33 43 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -10. -9. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -16. -17. -19. -18. -17. -20. -21. -20. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/27/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED