* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/28/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 51 59 68 78 84 88 86 84 79 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 51 59 68 78 84 88 48 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 48 56 64 74 84 90 50 34 29 SHEAR (KT) 7 13 15 10 9 12 2 2 4 6 2 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 1 0 -3 -3 -1 2 0 8 3 9 SHEAR DIR 299 333 358 19 355 9 78 72 218 31 208 29 107 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 150 148 146 148 146 145 142 139 137 136 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 135 135 133 131 132 130 128 125 122 119 118 115 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.0 -50.3 -49.9 -49.1 -49.7 -48.9 -49.6 -48.3 -49.0 -48.0 -48.7 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 11 8 13 8 13 9 12 9 14 700-500 MB RH 81 80 77 78 77 72 77 78 76 78 75 72 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 18 18 19 21 22 23 25 24 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 91 100 114 128 135 133 142 139 128 128 114 116 94 200 MB DIV 52 48 55 55 57 65 57 63 69 24 42 -1 -19 LAND (KM) 19 76 133 188 234 337 286 213 122 10 -102 -203 -294 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.1 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 91.1 91.6 92.0 92.4 92.7 93.5 94.5 95.5 96.6 97.7 98.8 99.8 100.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 9 30 33 34 37 60 59 35 1 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 33. 43. 49. 53. 51. 49. 44. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/28/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/28/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/28/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)