* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/28/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 25 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 25 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 28 26 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 12 13 17 26 25 23 23 31 27 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 8 5 1 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 103 101 88 83 92 68 88 101 88 84 92 107 N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 24.9 24.7 24.4 23.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 112 109 107 104 98 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 38 39 39 37 35 32 33 31 31 23 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -28 -29 -24 -19 -11 -3 6 -5 1 -3 7 N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -18 -34 -28 1 4 -11 13 -20 -23 2 -11 N/A LAND (KM) 1591 1607 1623 1627 1631 1639 1647 1673 1693 1760 1786 1789 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.0 124.2 124.3 124.4 124.4 124.5 124.6 125.0 125.5 126.4 127.0 127.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 3 4 3 3 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -18. -24. -32. -39. -43. -50. -55. -55. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/28/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/28/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY