* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/28/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 31 28 25 24 21 23 23 25 21 21 V (KT) LAND 40 38 35 31 28 25 24 21 21 24 26 26 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 34 32 29 27 26 24 25 26 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 25 28 30 31 32 30 26 22 29 27 37 37 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 8 9 8 2 6 10 9 11 7 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 83 83 88 83 75 87 73 80 81 75 72 85 N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 147 149 152 154 155 154 152 150 144 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -49.7 -51.0 -49.9 -50.9 -50.0 -51.0 -50.0 -50.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 10 7 10 7 11 8 12 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 71 72 77 77 80 77 79 73 71 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 33 26 34 49 40 35 27 44 41 37 50 N/A 200 MB DIV 53 73 65 60 68 64 48 26 27 -5 -3 -34 N/A LAND (KM) 411 386 360 308 257 188 96 38 -34 -76 -124 -128 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.1 16.5 17.0 18.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.0 101.6 101.0 100.4 99.3 97.9 97.1 96.7 96.8 97.2 97.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 5 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 26 26 12 15 39 31 33 43 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -17. -19. -21. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -19. -17. -17. -15. -19. -19. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/28/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/28/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED