* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/28/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 56 65 74 81 86 88 85 82 77 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 56 65 74 81 86 71 43 32 28 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 49 53 57 65 75 84 90 76 44 32 28 SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 11 12 7 4 4 2 3 3 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -2 -5 -1 -2 0 6 4 7 6 8 SHEAR DIR 334 6 28 2 15 50 81 68 218 97 240 45 355 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 147 146 147 148 147 145 142 139 138 134 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 132 131 131 132 130 127 124 121 120 116 116 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -49.9 -49.4 -49.5 -49.2 -49.3 -48.7 -49.0 -48.6 -48.6 -48.4 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 9 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 81 78 78 76 73 73 78 78 78 77 74 70 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 18 18 19 20 22 23 24 24 24 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 95 108 129 137 140 150 141 130 133 116 120 109 123 200 MB DIV 42 61 44 55 70 69 45 61 36 38 27 4 2 LAND (KM) 63 122 177 217 258 355 252 184 81 -20 -142 -253 -357 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.2 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.6 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 91.4 91.8 92.2 92.5 92.8 93.8 95.0 96.0 97.0 98.0 99.2 100.3 101.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 22 33 35 37 49 64 47 32 25 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 34. 41. 46. 48. 45. 42. 37. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/28/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/28/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/28/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)