* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 64 67 75 81 87 90 89 86 78 69 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 64 67 75 81 87 90 48 34 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 62 67 71 78 84 88 90 49 33 29 27 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 9 14 13 8 6 1 3 6 5 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -5 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 8 2 10 6 SHEAR DIR 10 29 2 360 17 41 83 238 18 332 324 248 324 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 147 149 149 146 142 139 138 136 135 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 131 132 133 132 128 123 121 119 117 115 113 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -49.9 -49.4 -49.7 -49.8 -48.5 -49.2 -48.3 -49.2 -47.6 -48.6 -47.9 -48.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 11 8 12 9 12 9 14 8 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 76 73 78 79 79 78 75 69 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 19 20 21 22 22 22 20 23 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 104 127 136 130 126 132 120 124 116 97 99 88 59 200 MB DIV 80 68 61 63 59 55 58 64 42 60 0 10 -18 LAND (KM) 111 158 205 258 318 359 255 125 5 -117 -242 -324 -386 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.2 23.1 23.9 24.6 25.0 25.5 26.1 26.5 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 91.6 92.0 92.3 92.7 93.1 94.1 95.3 96.4 97.5 98.6 99.7 100.6 101.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 27 29 40 43 64 44 30 2 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 25. 31. 37. 40. 39. 36. 28. 19. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/28/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)