* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP842010 06/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 45 48 48 48 53 58 62 65 61 58 50 51 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 5 1 1 -4 -2 0 2 9 7 7 SHEAR DIR 220 226 231 233 229 228 237 235 243 252 255 249 257 SST (C) 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 100 101 101 101 101 98 96 96 98 100 101 104 105 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 22 22 22 22 21 19 18 15 15 14 14 18 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -40 -42 -40 -47 -44 -37 -23 -12 -7 -8 5 -21 200 MB DIV -18 -8 0 -21 -3 -6 -21 -28 -32 -37 -37 -31 -11 LAND (KM) 723 687 660 671 687 763 818 809 768 701 588 480 381 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.9 23.1 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.6 22.5 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 147.9 148.3 148.6 148.7 148.7 148.4 147.9 148.0 148.4 149.1 150.2 151.4 152.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 4 1 1 3 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -14. -29. -45. -58. -66. -70. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -11. -22. -37. -53. -66. -76. -83. -88. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP842010 INVEST 06/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP842010 INVEST 06/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY