* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 31 30 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 20 21 20 20 28 28 31 28 32 35 38 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -2 -3 1 4 6 3 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 85 74 85 72 71 80 96 90 79 93 103 105 N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 115 115 114 114 114 112 114 114 113 111 102 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 41 42 37 34 37 36 33 27 23 19 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -27 -25 -18 -18 -18 -17 -36 -37 -30 -5 4 N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -16 5 19 10 -8 8 -3 -19 -2 -4 0 N/A LAND (KM) 1638 1645 1652 1641 1629 1629 1606 1613 1614 1656 1683 1646 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.2 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.3 124.3 124.2 124.1 124.0 123.9 123.7 123.8 124.1 124.8 125.3 125.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 3 3 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -15. -23. -32. -39. -45. -50. -57. -58. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY