* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 27 25 20 17 17 17 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 27 25 20 17 17 22 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 28 26 23 21 20 23 25 26 28 DIS SHEAR (KT) 30 30 31 31 26 24 23 30 35 43 44 50 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 7 7 5 7 10 10 8 7 5 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 94 94 82 75 78 66 70 73 65 68 66 70 N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 153 154 156 158 160 160 155 154 151 147 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.8 -50.1 -50.6 -50.7 -49.7 -50.8 -50.4 -51.5 -50.6 -51.3 -50.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 8 7 10 7 11 8 12 9 13 N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 78 77 80 79 79 79 70 69 64 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 4 2 3 4 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 36 44 52 56 56 47 38 21 21 21 26 N/A 200 MB DIV 66 57 49 39 32 45 26 14 -8 -29 -14 0 N/A LAND (KM) 296 254 213 143 91 45 42 1 -70 -88 -100 30 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.6 16.8 17.3 18.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.6 100.0 99.4 98.5 97.6 96.3 95.0 94.3 94.0 94.2 94.6 94.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 8 9 8 6 5 3 2 2 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 34 40 37 21 33 39 30 54 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. -18. -18. -18. -18. -20. -26. -26. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY