* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/28/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 62 66 72 77 80 81 79 73 66 59 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 62 66 72 77 80 57 37 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 59 64 67 74 80 85 62 38 30 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 13 11 6 5 4 4 8 9 14 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 2 2 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 0 -6 4 SHEAR DIR 350 356 18 24 48 17 62 356 7 338 324 358 332 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 148 149 147 145 140 137 137 136 136 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 131 134 134 131 128 122 118 117 116 116 115 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.5 -49.9 -50.1 -49.6 -49.4 -49.0 -49.1 -48.6 -48.9 -48.7 -49.0 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 8 11 9 10 10 11 12 13 11 13 700-500 MB RH 80 77 76 72 76 78 81 81 82 80 81 75 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 20 20 20 17 15 12 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 127 135 129 129 137 118 114 102 78 66 40 41 20 200 MB DIV 69 75 60 61 54 39 50 35 39 30 25 7 5 LAND (KM) 126 163 199 274 356 316 188 57 -56 -164 -238 -327 -445 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.6 24.2 24.9 25.4 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.7 92.0 92.2 92.8 93.3 94.7 95.9 97.0 98.0 98.9 99.7 100.7 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 21 25 41 45 54 37 14 21 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 27. 30. 31. 29. 23. 16. 9. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/28/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/28/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/28/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)