* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ONE CP842010 06/28/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 32 30 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 45 47 48 50 54 62 63 64 60 60 54 53 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 6 3 1 -2 -3 -1 3 4 8 7 10 SHEAR DIR 227 233 232 227 226 231 236 242 249 252 246 249 244 SST (C) 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 101 102 101 101 100 97 93 93 95 97 99 100 102 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 20 21 21 20 19 16 15 12 12 12 14 15 17 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -41 -40 -47 -50 -50 -31 -11 0 -1 3 7 -1 200 MB DIV -18 5 -21 -10 7 -22 -47 -38 -41 -27 -18 -23 -13 LAND (KM) 670 663 667 705 748 892 952 957 910 842 753 659 561 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 148.4 148.5 148.6 148.4 148.2 147.0 146.4 146.4 146.9 147.7 148.7 149.8 150.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 6 6 5 1 1 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -19. -33. -48. -60. -68. -72. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 16. 17. 16. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -14. -27. -44. -60. -74. -84. -93. -98. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP842010 ONE 06/28/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 46.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP842010 ONE 06/28/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY