* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/28/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 15 20 19 22 28 25 33 39 40 41 36 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 4 3 0 1 5 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 76 76 71 74 77 88 87 86 85 100 108 105 N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 114 114 114 113 111 114 114 113 111 104 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 40 36 33 35 33 32 27 24 19 18 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -21 -24 -22 -16 -13 -19 -30 -27 -10 -5 21 N/A 200 MB DIV -3 10 20 10 4 4 13 0 -7 -11 -9 -3 N/A LAND (KM) 1621 1621 1621 1617 1613 1606 1590 1606 1614 1664 1692 1676 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.1 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.9 123.9 123.8 123.8 123.7 123.6 123.5 123.7 124.1 124.9 125.4 125.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 3 4 3 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -20. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -16. -25. -34. -43. -50. -57. -63. -63. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/28/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/28/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY