* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/28/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 23 20 19 19 19 18 16 16 16 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 23 20 18 23 25 26 29 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 26 25 23 21 24 26 26 28 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 29 31 30 26 25 23 32 33 38 41 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 7 7 8 12 10 7 7 6 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 86 69 72 72 71 65 66 61 66 68 56 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 157 157 159 160 160 155 152 149 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -49.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 9 8 10 8 11 10 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 73 79 79 80 83 80 81 71 72 66 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 68 73 79 83 69 57 48 28 48 46 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 43 49 30 61 13 8 3 -5 15 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 211 165 127 100 80 61 -4 -70 -110 -80 30 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.9 98.1 97.2 96.6 96.0 94.7 94.1 94.0 94.2 94.7 94.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 6 6 5 3 2 3 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 17 10 14 38 39 30 54 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 792 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 23. 30. 34. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -12. -17. -22. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/28/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/28/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED