* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/29/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 72 79 85 89 90 88 81 71 64 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 72 79 85 62 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 67 72 79 85 63 38 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 10 8 9 2 5 2 7 3 9 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 -3 -3 -1 -2 6 0 10 7 13 SHEAR DIR 347 17 14 47 62 72 138 32 100 25 115 49 94 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 146 150 149 146 143 138 136 134 134 135 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 133 136 133 129 126 121 118 113 113 114 115 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.0 -50.1 -49.5 -48.8 -49.4 -48.3 -48.7 -47.6 -48.7 -47.8 -48.5 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 10 11 8 12 8 12 8 12 10 17 700-500 MB RH 79 76 73 73 74 76 75 72 72 68 65 65 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 22 22 24 24 25 24 23 19 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 132 129 125 141 137 129 114 113 103 92 75 66 52 200 MB DIV 77 58 64 61 60 39 65 15 54 19 39 -31 -12 LAND (KM) 125 186 258 358 379 262 93 -68 -231 -304 -325 -334 -247 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.3 24.0 24.7 25.2 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.5 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 91.6 92.1 92.5 93.3 94.0 95.2 96.7 98.2 99.8 100.5 100.6 100.7 99.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 5 2 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 18 39 44 52 44 26 23 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 24. 30. 34. 35. 33. 26. 16. 9. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/29/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/29/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/29/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 7( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 12( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)