* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/29/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 25 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 13 17 18 21 24 22 24 24 30 32 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 1 2 5 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 81 65 67 73 80 97 93 91 95 100 107 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.3 25.2 25.2 24.9 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 113 111 110 111 110 112 112 112 109 102 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 37 33 35 38 36 36 26 21 16 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -18 -14 -11 -15 -5 -23 -25 -28 -7 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 26 14 -2 10 7 -2 -8 -1 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1590 1575 1559 1559 1559 1552 1575 1599 1657 1693 1673 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.6 123.4 123.2 123.2 123.2 123.2 123.5 124.1 124.9 125.5 126.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 0 0 1 2 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -19. -29. -38. -46. -50. -58. -61. -61. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/29/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/29/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY