* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/29/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 73 76 82 84 85 81 76 70 62 56 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 73 76 82 73 44 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 69 73 77 83 87 45 32 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 8 7 7 9 5 8 4 10 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -5 -1 -3 7 -1 3 -5 SHEAR DIR 4 358 4 32 48 79 23 310 10 345 337 320 349 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 148 148 148 144 140 137 136 137 134 129 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 133 134 133 128 122 119 118 119 116 109 104 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -49.8 -49.1 -49.4 -48.9 -48.9 -48.4 -48.4 -48.8 -48.8 -49.2 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 12 9 10 10 11 10 13 10 12 11 700-500 MB RH 77 73 75 76 78 81 80 82 82 80 76 74 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 23 22 22 22 20 17 10 6 5 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 123 115 128 140 126 116 100 90 82 41 37 8 9 200 MB DIV 59 50 54 58 43 52 71 66 46 7 15 -5 4 LAND (KM) 161 238 325 426 353 165 -9 -143 -257 -387 -496 -605 -609 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.2 22.9 23.5 24.1 24.8 25.4 25.7 25.7 26.3 27.6 28.6 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 91.8 92.3 92.7 93.5 94.2 95.9 97.5 98.8 100.0 101.2 102.4 103.4 103.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 6 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 34 35 40 44 29 2 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 22. 24. 25. 21. 16. 10. 2. -4. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/29/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/29/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/29/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 8( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 9( 9) 34( 40) 4( 42) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)