* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/29/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 70 73 77 76 75 72 69 64 59 52 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 70 73 77 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 70 74 80 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 13 4 6 4 4 7 2 4 6 8 13 8 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -4 5 -2 5 -2 -2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 16 11 19 26 69 357 210 275 294 265 301 302 310 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 147 145 140 138 136 136 134 130 124 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 133 131 128 122 120 117 117 116 112 104 100 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -49.8 -49.0 -49.3 -49.6 -48.5 -49.1 -47.4 -49.1 -48.5 -49.2 -48.7 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 9 8 12 10 12 10 14 9 15 10 700-500 MB RH 73 73 76 79 79 82 82 85 84 81 79 71 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 24 22 23 23 22 17 10 6 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 110 124 135 129 116 100 89 87 48 29 17 10 0 200 MB DIV 63 73 71 52 39 60 48 83 -9 55 -19 35 -12 LAND (KM) 298 390 394 293 192 18 -128 -261 -371 -484 -579 -563 -639 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.6 27.3 28.4 29.3 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 92.7 93.3 93.9 94.8 95.6 97.2 98.6 99.9 101.1 102.3 103.6 104.5 104.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 38 42 45 40 29 4 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 16. 15. 12. 9. 4. -1. -8. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/29/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/29/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/29/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 6( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)