* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/29/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 70 74 74 71 71 69 66 62 59 54 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 70 74 56 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 65 69 73 60 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 6 8 7 5 6 8 9 17 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -2 -2 3 0 0 11 5 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 1 351 1 27 35 25 331 58 31 40 50 34 46 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 154 149 146 140 143 143 144 142 143 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 140 138 132 128 124 124 123 123 119 121 120 118 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -48.9 -49.3 -49.6 -49.1 -48.7 -48.1 -48.6 -49.2 -49.4 -49.8 -50.3 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 8 11 11 12 10 11 9 11 12 13 700-500 MB RH 75 77 79 80 83 85 87 87 87 84 77 74 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 24 25 25 18 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 133 138 134 125 116 112 89 74 55 59 26 38 19 200 MB DIV 75 71 45 46 38 70 70 37 11 -4 14 27 -6 LAND (KM) 401 357 278 191 104 -62 -242 -381 -469 -438 -467 -470 -453 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.5 24.9 25.3 25.8 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 93.6 94.3 95.0 95.8 96.5 98.1 99.8 101.2 102.2 103.0 102.7 102.1 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 8 7 5 4 1 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 48 52 43 32 31 22 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -18. -20. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -5. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 14. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. -1. -6. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/29/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/29/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/29/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 34( 34) 0( 34) 0( 34) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)