* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/30/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 78 81 80 77 73 71 66 60 56 50 V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 78 81 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 74 78 82 52 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 6 6 9 9 11 8 14 16 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -1 0 1 0 3 4 3 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 345 359 28 36 351 12 14 75 58 59 72 51 63 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 150 147 144 142 143 144 145 142 143 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 137 133 130 128 126 126 126 125 119 122 122 119 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.4 -49.6 -48.9 -48.2 -49.0 -47.6 -49.2 -48.9 -49.6 -49.5 -50.5 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 8 11 12 10 12 8 11 6 10 9 13 700-500 MB RH 78 80 82 83 83 83 86 88 86 82 74 75 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 26 26 24 16 9 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 148 141 134 125 123 109 97 78 44 42 20 33 40 200 MB DIV 81 46 41 48 89 53 75 0 49 -14 35 -10 32 LAND (KM) 327 276 204 132 61 -121 -296 -436 -342 -275 -304 -393 -423 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.2 24.5 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.4 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.1 95.8 96.5 97.2 99.0 100.7 102.3 103.6 104.6 104.2 103.3 103.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 5 1 3 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 64 59 44 38 18 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -18. -20. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 15. 12. 8. 6. 1. -5. -9. -15. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/30/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/30/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/30/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 8( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 51( 53) 0( 53) 0( 53) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)