* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/30/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 81 84 84 82 76 68 63 55 49 45 41 V (KT) LAND 70 75 81 84 73 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 70 76 82 86 89 45 32 28 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 8 12 9 13 19 19 22 22 20 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 -4 -4 2 6 11 11 8 3 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 22 43 41 2 6 359 52 73 83 69 85 66 N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 147 144 141 143 143 142 141 139 140 141 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 131 128 125 127 126 123 119 117 118 121 N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.5 -48.9 -48.3 -48.5 -48.3 -48.7 -49.3 -49.7 -50.0 -50.2 -50.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 11 12 10 11 9 10 9 10 9 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 81 81 81 84 84 85 81 78 72 70 72 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 28 24 20 14 8 4 4 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 144 139 133 136 136 117 99 68 61 27 47 47 N/A 200 MB DIV 89 58 46 82 56 49 19 -35 4 8 28 20 N/A LAND (KM) 297 219 132 61 -10 -193 -377 -325 -303 -322 -313 -349 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.0 23.7 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.7 96.5 97.2 97.9 99.7 101.5 102.8 102.9 102.7 102.8 102.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 4 1 0 1 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 53 39 22 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -16. -19. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 14. 15. 12. 6. -2. -7. -15. -21. -25. -29. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/30/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/30/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/30/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 0( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 47 3( 49) 0( 49) 0( 49) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)